Question 176
Alice and Bob are playing in an eight-player single-elimination rock-paper-scissors tournament. In the first round, all players are paired up randomly to play a match. Each round after that, the winners of the previous round are paired up randomly. After three rounds, the last remaining player is considered the champion. Ties are broken with a coin flip. Given that Alice always plays rock, Bob always plays paper, and everyone else always plays scissors, what is the probability that Alice is crowned champion? Note that rock beats scissors, scissors beats paper, and paper beats rock.